汽车和汽车零部件行业特斯拉与新势力销量跟踪报告：1Q24特斯拉交付不及预期，3月新势力表现符合预期.pdf

敬请参阅最后一页特别声明-1-证券研究报告2024年4月3日行业研究1Q24特斯拉交付不及预期，3月新势力表现符合预期——特斯拉与新势力销量跟踪报告汽车和汽车零部件1Q24特斯拉全球交付量不及预期：1Q24特斯拉全球交付量同比-8.5%/环比-20.2%至38.7万辆（Model3+Y同比-10.3%/环比-19.9%至37.0万辆，交付量占比95.6%）。我们认为1Q24特斯拉全球交付量敬请参阅最后一页特别声明-2-证券研究报告汽车和汽车零部件图1：1Q18-1Q24特斯拉全球交付量图2：1Q18-4Q23特斯拉汽车收入与汽车业务毛利率0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,0001Q182Q183Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q24Model3/Y（辆）ModelS/X（辆）0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,0001Q182Q183Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q23汽车收入（LHS，百万美元）汽车业务剔除积分后毛利率（%）资料来源：公司公告资料来源：公司公告图3：2020/1-2024/3蔚来交付量图4：1Q20-4Q23蔚来汽车收入与汽车业务毛利率05,00010,00015,00020,00025,000蔚来（辆）-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,000汽车收入（LHS，百万人民币）汽车业务毛利率（RHS）资料来源：公司公告资料来源：公司公告图5：2020/1-2024/3理想交付量图6：1Q20-4Q23理想汽车收入与汽车业务毛利率010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,000Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23May-23Jul-23Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24理想（辆）0%5%10%15%20%25%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000汽车收入（LHS，百万人民币）汽车业务毛利率（RHS）资料来源：公司公告资料来源：公司公告敬请参阅最后一页特别声明-3-证券研究报告汽车和汽车零部件图7：2020/1-2024/3小鹏交付量图8：1Q20-4Q23小鹏汽车收入与汽车业务毛利率05,00010,00015,00020,00025,000Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23May-23Jul-23Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24小鹏（辆）-10%-5%0%5%10%15%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,000汽车收入（LHS，百万人民币）汽车业务毛利率（RHS）资料来源：公司公告资料来源：公司公告表1：2023/8-2024/3新势力品牌交付情况（单位：辆）Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24同比环比理想汽车34,91436,06040,42241,03050,35331,16520,25128,98439.2%43.1%ONE21-----NANANAL910,93311,88412,75611,95514,9138,7626,336NANANAL811,22711,19312,14212,47615,0139,0615,457NANANAL712,75212,98215,52516,59920,42813,3438,459NANANAMEGA-------NANANA小鹏汽车13,69015,31020,00220,04120,1158,2504,5459,02628.9%98.6%P74,2414,6664,2502,9904,2711,783836NANANAG3497296363-2277226NANANAP51,2688262,0552,5231,838377213NANANAG96161,3904,5935,7785,4051,737861NANANAG67,0688,1328,7418,7507,6731,8031,161NANANAX9-----2,4781,4483,946NANA蔚来汽车19,32915,64116,07415,95918,01210,0558,13211,86614.3%45.9%ES82,3692,1392,2511,6581,584615414NANANAES68,6017,8965,8755,6666,9433,9442,959NANANAET7349245332253466210135NANANAEC62281,0062,5492,7392,8871,5281,209NANANAET52,8821,2991,5511,9132,1671,3301,249NANANAES73252342071322667764NANANAEC7492229204350368143119NANANAET5T4,0832,5933,1053,2483,3312,2081,983NANANA问界3,2226,70812,70018,82724,46832,97321,14231,727775.2%50.1%M52,2341,4602,1533,5853,8571,7202,663886NANAM79885,24810,54715,24220,61131,25318,47924,598NANAM9-------6,243NANA哪吒汽车12,10313,21112,08512,50613,01610,0326,0858,317277.0%36.7%零跑汽车14,19015,80018,20218,50818,61812,2776,56614,567136.0%121.9%广汽埃安52,05751,59641,50341,56745,94724,94716,67632,530-18.7%95.1%极氪12,30312,05313,07713,10413,47612,5377,51013,01295.3%73.3%资料来源：公司公告，光大证券研究所整理敬请参阅最后一页特别声明-4-证券研究报告行业及公司评级体系评级说明行业及公司评