Deutsche Bank-China Macro 10 charts on China’s industrial overcapacity-107776132.pdf

2024-05-06 12:39
Deutsche Bank-China Macro 10 charts on China’s industrial overcapacity-107776132.pdf

DeutscheBankResearchYiXiong,PhD(+852)22036139|yi.xiong@db.comDeutscheBankResearchChinaMacro10chartsonChina’sindustrialovercapacityDeutscheBankIMPORTANTRESEARCHDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSLOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)097/10/2022.UNTIL19thMARCH2021INCOMPLETEDISCLOSUREINFORMATIONMAYHAVEBEENDISPLAYED,PLEASESEEAPPENDIX1FORFURTHERDETAILS.YiXiong,PhDDeyunOuChiefeconomist,ChinaResearchAssociate+85222036139April2024Distributedon:24/04/202404:54:06GMT7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDeutscheBankResearchYiXiong,PhD(+852)22036139|yi.xiong@db.com1.China’sindustrialcapacityutilizationratehasdeclinedsince2021,whilepriceshavedroppedsince2022.ThishasledtorenewedfocusonwhetherexcesscapacityisbuildingupagaininChina.1China:industrialcapacityutilizationandproducerprices676971737577798090100110120201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Producerpricesindex,s.a.Industrialcapacityutilizationrate,s.a(rhs)2020=100%2014-16:Excesscapacity2017-19:Supply-sidereforms2020-21:Coviddisruptions2022-23:Excesscapacitybuildingupagain?Source:DeutscheBankResearch,NBS,HaverAnalytics,WINDDeutscheBankResearchYiXiong,PhD(+852)22036139|yi.xiong@db.com2.Capacityutilizationwasunevenacrossindustries.In2023,almosthalfofallindustries’capacityutilizationratewerestillatorabovetheaveragelevelin2017-19.Meanwhile,afewindustries’capacityutilizationratehasdroppedtonearorevenbelowtheaveragelevel2014-16,whenChinahadexcesscapacityissues.2CapacityUtilizationratebyindustry,202365707374757575767677787879808463656769717375777981838587NonmetalMineralFoodElectricity,Water&GasCoalAutomobilePharmaceuticalsChemicalsComputer&ElectronicsTextileElectricMachinerySpecialEquipmentFerrousMetalsUniversalEquipmentNonferrousMetalsChemicalFiberOilandGas922017-19avg.2014-16avg.Source:DeutscheBankResearch,NBS,HaverAnalytics,WINDDeutscheBankResearchYiXiong,PhD(+852)22036139|yi.xiong@db.com3.Threeindustries(computer&electronics,nonmetalminerals,andautomobiles)sawpricesdroppingtobelowpre-Covidlevels.Theircapacityutilizationareallat75%orbelowin2023.Mostindustriessawmildpricehikes,whileafewindustrieswithhighcapacityutilization(>80%)sawlargerpricehikes.3CapacityutilizationandpricechangesCoalMiningAllIndustriesOilandGasFoodChemicalFiberNonmetallicMineralNonferrousMetalsAutomobileComputer&Electronics-20-100102030406065707580859095Capacityutilizationrate,2023%changeinproducerpricesfromQ42019Pricesdroppedduring2020-23Source:DeutscheBankResearch,NBS,HaverAnalytics,WINDDeutscheBankResearchYiXiong,PhD(+852)22036139|yi.xiong@db.com4.Capacityutilizationratesinthese3industriesarealsolowertodaycomparedwith2016whenChina’scapacityutilizationwasatatrough.Butformostindustries,capacityutilizationishighertodaythanin2016,thankstothegovernment’ssupplysidereforms.4Capacityutilizationrate:2023comparedwith2016NonmetallicMineralAutomobileFoodComputer&ElectronicsPharmaceuticalsElectricMachineryandEquipmentTextileChemicalsAllIndustriesChemicalFiberElectricity,Water&GasNonferrousMetalsSpecialEquipmentPetroleumandNaturalGasExtractionFerrousMetalsUniversalEquipment-6

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