彼得森经济研究所-欧洲的通货膨胀激增（英）.pdf

1750MassachusettsAvenue,NW|Washington,DC20036-1903USA|+1.202.328.9000|www.piie.comPOLICYBRIEFPatrickHonohan,nonresidentseniorfellowatthePetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomics,wasgovernoroftheCentralBankofIrelandandamemberofthegoverningcounciloftheEuropeanCentralBank.24-2TheInflationSurgeinEuropePatrickHonohanMay2024Note:ThisPolicyBriefispartofaseriestitledUnderstandingtheCOVIDEraInflation.PIIEgratefullyacknowledgesthefinancialsupportfromadonorwhowishestoremainanonymousfortheresearchpresentedinthisPolicyBrief.Theresearchwasconductedindependently.Fundersarenevergiventherighttofinalreviewofapublicationbeforeitsrelease.TheauthorthanksJoshBivens,KarenDynan,HeidiShierholz,andDavidWilcoxforhelpfulcommentsandsuggestionsandJulietaContrerasforeagle-eyedresearchassistance.INTRODUCTIONFormostofthedecadebeforetheCOVID-19pandemic,undershootingratherthanovershootinghadbeenthemaininflationproblemoftheEuropeanCentralBank(ECB).During2020,consumerpricesintheeuroareawerefalling;bytheendofthatyear,averageinflationsincethestartoftheeurotwodecadesearlierstoodatonly1.6percentperyear.Thingsbegantosnowballin2021.The12-monthinflationratesteadilyaccelerated.Itreacheddoubledigitsinthefinalquarterof2022—morethantwicethelevelithadeverreachedsincetheeuro’sintroductionin1999.FourstrikingfeaturesemergefromareviewoftheunexpectedsurgeinEuropeaninflationsince2021:•TheECB’smonetarypolicyresponselaggedbehindthatoftheFederalReserve,reflectingthemoregradualevolutionofinflationintheeuroareaanditsdistinctpatternofcauses.•Therangeofinflationratesacrossdifferenteuroareacountrieshasbeenunprecedented.Thislargelyreflectsthedifferentialimpactofwar-relatedenergyshocks(especiallyfornaturalgaspipedfromRussia)aswellasthedifferentialfiscalresponsebynationalgovernmentspartiallyinsulatingconsumersfromtheseshocks.•Notallhouseholdswerenetlosersfromtheinflation,withsomebenefitingfromthefactthatinflationreducedtherealvalueoftheirindebtedness.•Thespeedwithwhichinflationwasreturningtowardtargetduring2023promptedconcernsthattheECB’smonetarytighteningmighthavebeenpushedtoofar,prolongingtheoutputslowdown.2 PB24-2|MAY2024GiventhedominancewithinEuropeoftheeuro—thehomecurrencyforabout350millionpeople—themainfocusofthisbriefreviewisontheeuroarea.Ialsomakesomereferencetothethreenext-largestadvancedeconomiesofthecontinent,namelythoseoftheUnitedKingdom,Switzerland,andSweden.THEPATTERNOFTHEINFLATIONSURGEINEUROPEAlthoughsomeofthepreconditionsandsomeofthedriversofeuroareainflationweresimilartothoseintheUnitedStates,thetimingwasdifferent,reflectingtransatlanticcontrasts.ThelagbetweentheincreaseininflationintheUnitedStatesandthatintheeuroareawasabouthalfayear.Forexample,euroarea12-monthinflationremainedbelow5percentuntilDecember2021,whereasthatlevelhadalreadybeenbreachedinthecorrespondingUS(HICP)indexsixmonthspreviously.1Peak12-monthinflationintheeuroareaat10.6percentwasslightlyhigherintheeuroareathanintheUS(10.1percent)andwasreachedonlyinOctober2022.(Asdiscussedlater,someindividualsmalleuroareacountriesregisteredmuch