通货膨胀如何彻底改变经济理念（英）.pdf

MARCH202428F&DRethinkingEconomics“Themantrasofthe2010s,whichpreachedthatprosperityneededonlyforthegovernmenttoborroworprintahugeamountofmoneyandhanditout,areinthedustbin.”JohnH.CochraneInflationteachesusthatsupply,notdemand,constrainsoureconomies,andgovernmentborrowingislimitedTheunexpectedresurgenceofinflationisaslapintheface,tellingusthattheconsensusideasofeconomicpolicyarewrongandneedtochange.Fortunatelythe“new”ideasweneedarewelltestedandsittingontheshelf.Inflationcomeswhenaggregatedemandexceedsaggregatesupply.Thesourceofdemandisnothardtofind:inresponsetothepandemic’sdislocations,theUSgovern-mentsentabout$5trillionincheckstopeopleandbusinesses,$3trillionofitnewlyprintedmoney,withnoplansforrepayment.Othercountriesenactedsimilarfiscalexpansionsandreapedinflationinproportion.Supplyismorecontentious.Supplydidshrinkduringthepandemic.Butinflationspikedafterthepandemicwaslargelyover,andmany“supplyshock”industrieswereproducingasmuchasbeforebutcouldnotkeepupwithdemand.Butjusthowmuchinflationcamefromdemand,inducedbylooserfiscalormone-tarypolicy,versusreducedsupplymatterslittleforthebasiclesson.Inflationforcesustofacethefactthat“supply,”theeconomy’spro-ductivecapacity,isfarmorelimitedthanmostpeoplepreviouslythought.Themantrasofthe2010s—“secularstagnation,”“modernmone-tarytheory,”“stimulus”—whichpreachedthatprosperityneededonlyforthegovernmenttoborroworprintahugeamountofmoneyandjohnh.cochraneistheRose-MarieandJackAndersonSeniorFellowattheHooverInstitution,StanfordUniversity;adjunctscholarattheCatoInstitute;andauthorofTheFiscalTheoryofthePriceLevel.ILLUSTRATION:ANDRÉLAAME/SEPIAMARCH202429F&DRethinkingEconomicshanditout,areinthedustbin.Youaskedforit.Wetriedit.Wegotinflation,notboom.Asupply-limitedeconomyrequiressup-ply-orientedpolicy,notstimulus,togrow.“Jobs”arenowacost,notabenefit.With3.7percentUSunemployment,everyworkeremployedonamake-workprojectisonenotdoingsomethingmoreimportant.Regulationsmakehousingfartoocostlyandtime-consum-ingtobuild.Acoherentimmigrationsystembringsinpeoplewhowork,produce,andpaytaxes.Weneedpublicinfrastructure,butitsobsceneexcesscostisaratholewecannolon-gerafford.Tariffsthatforceustooverpayforthingsforeignerscanprovidebetterarejustadrainontheeconomy.Policyfocusedonwhogetswhatmustnowfocusonincentives,whicharethekeytogrowth.ThecancerofstagnationStagnationisthequietlyinsidiouseconomiccancerofourera.USgrowthfellbyhalfafter2000.EuropeandtheUKarestagnatingevenmore.Italyhasnotgrowninpercapitatermssince2007.Revivinglong-termgrowthdrownsanyotherpolicy,andonlysupply,efficiency,productivity,andincentive-orientedpolicycanrevivelong-termgrowth.Theviewthatthereisunlimiteddemandforgovernmentdebt,withbuzzwordslike“sav-ingsglut”or“safeassetshortage,”hasequallyprovedfalse.TheUS,UK,andEuropeseemtobeabletoborrowabout100percentofGDP.Moredebtleadstohigherinterestrates,trou-bleborrowing,andinflationaspeopletrytospendtheextradebtratherthanholdontoitasagoodinvestment.Fromnowon,governmentsmustspendmoneyasiftheyhavetoraisetaxestopayforit,noworlater.Theydo.Pro