英国国家经济和社会研究所-英国宏观经济背景（英）.pdf

MacroeconomicContextBenjaminCaswellNIESRGeneralElectionBriefingMay2024AbouttheNationalInstituteofEconomicandSocialResearchTheNationalInstituteofEconomicandSocialResearchisBritain"slongestestablishedindependentresearchinstitute,foundedin1938.Thevisionofourfounderswastocarryoutresearchtoimproveunderstandingoftheeconomicandsocialforcesthataffectpeople’slives,andthewaysinwhichpolicycanbringaboutchange.Overeightyyearslater,thisremainscentraltoNIESR’sethos.Wecontinuetoapplyourexpertiseinbothquantitativeandqualitativemethodsandourunderstandingofeconomicandsocialissuestocurrentdebatesandtoinfluencepolicy.TheInstituteisindependentofallparty-politicalinterests.NuffieldFoundationWearegratefultotheNuffieldFoundationfortheirsupportinfundingthiswork.TheNuffieldFoundationisanindependentcharitabletrustwithamissiontoadvanceeducationalopportunityandsocialwellbeing.Itfundsresearchthatinformssocialpolicy,primarilyineducation,welfareandjustice.TheNuffieldFoundationisthefounderandco-funderoftheNuffieldCouncilonBioethics,theNuffieldFamilyJusticeObservatoryandtheAdaLovelaceInstitute.NationalInstituteofEconomicandSocialResearch2DeanTrenchStLondonSW1P3HET:+44(0)2072227665E:enquiries@niesr.ac.ukniesr.ac.ukRegisteredcharityno.306083ThisbriefingwasfirstpublishedinMay2024©NationalInstituteofEconomicandSocialResearch20241ContentsOverview.....2KeyPoints...2CurrentStateoftheUKEconomy....3TheUnitedKingdom’sPoorProductivityPerformance...5References....132OVERVIEWThisbriefingfocuseson:•ThestateoftheUKeconomysince2019•Theneedforsupply-sidereformsandanewfiscalframeworktosupportgrowthandlivingstandards.KEYPOINTS•TheUnitedKingdom"seconomyhasbeenmarredbylowgrowthandflatliningproductivitybyhistoricalandinternationalstandards.•Weprojectthatthegrowthrateofoutputandproductivitywillrecovermodestlytoaround1percentperyearforremainderofthedecade.•Arevisedfiscalframeworkisvitalforfosteringsustainedeconomicgrowth.•RevitalisingtheUKeconomyandboostinglivingstandardswilldependonsupply-sidereformssuchasraisingpublicinvestmentinkeyareaslikehealthcare,infrastructureandhousing,aswellashelpingunlockgreaterbusinessinvestment.•Integratingpublicsectornetworthasafiscaltargetcanhelpincentivisehigherpublicinvestment,whichinturnwillimproveUKgrowthprospectsinthenextparliamentandbeyond.3CurrentStateoftheUKEconomyTheUnitedKingdomhasexperiencedloweconomicgrowthsincethepreviouselectioninDecember2019.Inthesecondhalfof2023,theeconomywasparticularlyweakandtherehasbeennosubstantialgrowthineconomicactivityoverthepasttwoyears.ThislowtrendgrowthisillustratedbyFigure1,whichshowsrealGDPperheadoverpastdecade,withalinetodenotetheoutputlevelpriortotheCovid-19pandemic.Figure1:UKGDPperhead(quarterlyfrequency)Source:ONSGDPperheadiscurrentlybelowitsfourthquarterof2019value.Moreover,NIESR’smostrecentoutlook(BejaranoCarboetal.,2024)isforGDPperheadtoincreaseby0.1percentin2024andbyafurther0.5percentin2025.Forrealtotaleconomicactivity,ourprojectionssuggestanincreaseof0.9percentin2024.Beyondthisyear,weanticipateannualgrowthratesofonlyaro