彼得森经济研究所-新冠肺炎时代汽油和食品价格对消费者预期和态度的影响（英）.pdf

1750MassachusettsAvenue,NW|Washington,DC20036-1903USA|+1.202.328.9000|www.piie.comPOLICYBRIEFJoanneHsuisthedirectoroftheSurveysofConsumersandaresearchassociateprofessorattheInstituteforSocialResearchattheUniversityofMichigan.24-3TheInfluenceofGasolineandFoodPricesonConsumerExpectationsandAttitudesintheCOVIDEraJoanneHsuMay2024Note:ThisPolicyBriefispartofaseriestitledUnderstandingCOVIDEraInflation.PIIEgratefullyacknowledgesthefinancialsupportfromadonorwhowishestoremainanonymousfortheresearchpresentedinthisPolicyBrief.Theresearchwasconductedindependently.Fundersarenevergiventherighttofinalreviewofapublicationbeforeitsrelease.INTRODUCTIONFoodandgasolinearehigh-frequencyconsumptionitemsthatcomposeasubstantialshareofbudgetsformostfamilies.Onaverage,consumersspendover10percentoftheirdisposablepersonalincomeonfood,withlower-incomeconsumersspendingasmuchasone-thirdoftheirbudgets(USDAERS2022).Aggregategasolineexpendituresharesvaryacrosstime,typicallyrangingbetween1.5and5.5percentofdisposablepersonalincomesince1974(EIA2022).Likefood,householdexpendituresharesforgasolinefallwithincome.1Foodandgasolinepricesareextremelysalienttoconsumers;theyregularlypurchasethesegoods,andtheirpricesarehighlyvisible.Inparticular,gasolinepricesarevisibleoutdoorseventothosewhodonotpumpgasolineordrivecars.Overthepasttwoyears,numerousmediastorieshaveexploredtheinfluenceofgasolinepricesonconsumerattitudes.One2022pieceintheNewYorkTimesnotedthat“gasoline,distinctfromotherthingswebuy,wieldsrealpoweroverhowAmericansthinkabouttheirpersonalcircumstances,thewidereconomyandeventhestateofthenation.”2Thesharedexperienceofpurchasingfoodandgasolinemakesitnosurprisethatthosepriceshavebeenblamedfortherelativelydismalconsumerviewsoftheeconomyin2023amidstrongeconomicindicators,1See,forexample,Glaeseretal.(2023)andChernickandReschovsky(1997).2EmilyBadgerandEveWashington,“WhythePriceofGasHasSuchPoweroverUs,”NewYorkTimes,October25,2022.2 PB24-3|MAY2024includingslowinginflation,lowunemployment,androbustgrowth.Atthesametime,consumerinflationexpectationshaveeasedduringthispastyear.ThisPolicyBriefinvestigatestherolefoodandgasolinepricesplayininfluencingconsumerinflationexpectationsandeconomicsentiment,asmeasuredontheUniversityofMichiganSurveysofConsumers,andfocusesontheCOVIDinflationaryepisode.Understandinghowrealizedinflationfromgasoline,food,andcoregoodsdrivesconsumerattitudesisimportantforseveralreasons.First,thedeterminantsofinflationexpectationsareofinteresttopolicymakersfocusedoncontrollinginflationandensuringtheanchoringofexpectations.Furthermore,economicsentimentfactorsintoconsumerbehavior,includingspendingdecisions,whichaffectthetrajectoryofthemacroeconomy.Finally,surveydatarevealthecostsofrealizedinflationonconsumers,oratleasthowconsumersexperiencethosecosts,eveninanenvironmentwhereothereconomicindicatorsappearrelativelystrong.Ultimately,althoughconsumersentimentnowappearstobemoresensitivetoinflationthanpriortothepandemic,inflationexpectationsdonot.Evenasinflationhaswaned,consumerscontinuetosp