2024年安联全球保险业发展报告（英）-Allianz.pdf

04Lookingback:Lifeisback11Thechangingriskland-scape23May2024AllianzResearchTransformativeyearsAllianzGlobalInsuranceReport202417Lookingahead:Defendingitsrelevance21Thenextfrontier:GenAIaheadfortheinsurancesector2•Theglobalinsuranceindustrygrewbyanestimated+7.5%in2023,clockingthefastestgrowthsince2006,theyearbeforetheGlobalFinancialCrisis.Inall,insurersworldwidecollectedEUR6.2trninlife(EUR2,620bn),p&c(EUR2,154bn)andhealth(EUR1,427bn)insurancepremiums.•Overthelastthreeyears,globalpremiumincomeincreasedbyawhoppingEUR1.1trnor+21.5%.However,therobustdevelopmentmustbeseenagainstthebackdropofhighinflation.Inrealterms,therefore,thepictureisbecominglessimpressive.Realpremiumsalmoststagnated,advancingonlyby+0.7%since2020.•Incontrastto2022,whentheglobalpremiumincreasewasprimarilydrivenbythep&csegment,growthin2023wasmorebalanced–withthelifesegmentinthelead,accountingfor46.9%ofthetotalincrease(p&c:32.7%andhealth:20.4%).However,lookingattheindividualgrowthrates,allthreesegmentsrecordedrathersimilarincreases,withlifeat+8.4%,p&cat+7.1%andhealthat+6.6%.•Therecoveryofthelifesegment–whichgrewatonly+3.1%in2022–wasmainlydrivenbyAsia,thebiggestlifemarketintheworld,withaglobalmarketshareof39.0%.At+14.9%,regionalpremiumgrowthwaswayabovethelong-termaverage(CAGR2013-2023:+5.2%).China,byfarthebiggestmarketintheregion,accountingforalmosteverysecondeurowritteninlife(w/oJapan),alsoreturnedtoform,growingby+12.8%.•Thestronggrowthofthep&csegment(+7.0%)lastyearwasdrivenbyallregionsaroundtheglobe.NorthAmericaremainedbyfarthelargestmarket(globalmarketshare:54.2%).Withaprojectedplusof+7.1%,theincreaseinpremiumincomewasonlyatadslowerthaninthepreviousrecordyear(+7.5%).•Incontrasttomanyotherindustrieswheretraditionalmarketsarelosingrelevancevis-à-visnew,emergingmarkets,theglobalinsuranceindustryisstilldominatedbytheUS.Infact,overthelastdecade,theUSinsurancemarketcouldevenraiseitsglobalmarketshare,fromabalreadyimpressive41.2%toawhopping44.2%.However,other“old”marketslikeWesternEurope(-6.7pps)andJapan(-2.7pps)behavedmoreorlessasexpected,losingmarketshare,firstandforemosttoChina,whichcouldalmostdoubleitsglobalshareto10.6%.•In2021,wheninflationstartedtoskyrocket,awidegapopenedbetweeninsuranceandgeneralinflation.Duringtheacutephaseofthecost-of-livingcrisis,buyinginsurancecoverwasoneofthefewthingsthatremainedaffordable.However,sincethebeginningof2023,pricesforinsuranceproductshaverisennoticeably.InSeptember2023,insuranceinflationsurpassedgeneralinflationandhascontinuedtodosoasinsurerstrytorestoretheirprofitability.(Notethatinsuranceinflationisalaggingindicator.)•Globaleconomicgrowthisexpectedtoremainmoreorlessthesame,reaching+2.7%in2024-25after+2.8%in2023.Buttheweightsareshifting:ThedivergenceingrowthperformancebetweentheUSandEuropeisexpectedtonarrow.Moreover,theunwindingofsupply-chaindisruptions,lowerenergypricesandlesstightlabormarketshouldpushinflationbackorclosetotargets.ExecutiveSummaryAllianzResearchArneHolzhausenHeadofInsurance,WealthandTrendResearcharne.holzhausen@allianz.comKathrinS