英国国家经济和社会研究所-公共财政和税收选择（英）.pdf

PublicFinancesandTaxOptionsEdCornforthNIESRGeneralElectionBriefingMay2024AbouttheNationalInstituteofEconomicandSocialResearchTheNationalInstituteofEconomicandSocialResearchisBritain"slongestestablishedindependentresearchinstitute,foundedin1938.Thevisionofourfounderswastocarryoutresearchtoimproveunderstandingoftheeconomicandsocialforcesthataffectpeople’slives,andthewaysinwhichpolicycanbringaboutchange.Overeightyyearslater,thisremainscentraltoNIESR’sethos.Wecontinuetoapplyourexpertiseinbothquantitativeandqualitativemethodsandourunderstandingofeconomicandsocialissuestocurrentdebatesandtoinfluencepolicy.TheInstituteisindependentofallparty-politicalinterests.NuffieldFoundationWearegratefultotheNuffieldFoundationfortheirsupportinfundingthiswork.TheNuffieldFoundationisanindependentcharitabletrustwithamissiontoadvanceeducationalopportunityandsocialwellbeing.Itfundsresearchthatinformssocialpolicy,primarilyineducation,welfareandjustice.TheNuffieldFoundationisthefounderandco-funderoftheNuffieldCouncilonBioethics,theNuffieldFamilyJusticeObservatoryandtheAdaLovelaceInstitute.NationalInstituteofEconomicandSocialResearch2DeanTrenchStLondonSW1P3HET:+44(0)2072227665E:enquiries@niesr.ac.ukniesr.ac.ukRegisteredcharityno.306083ThisbriefingwasfirstpublishedinMay2024©NationalInstituteofEconomicandSocialResearch2024ContentsOverview..4KeyPoints4TheStateofPublicFinances...5RiskstotheFiscalPosition..7WhydoDebtsandDeficitsMatter?...8PoliciestoImprovetheFiscalPosition.11ShouldtheGovernmentIncreaseTaxorCutSpending?.11WhatAreaofExpenditurehastheBiggestEconomicImpact?.13WhatdoweMeanbyGovernmentInvestment?.17WhatTaxhastheBiggestEconomicImpact?.18AlternativeInstruments...19Conclusion...21References...22OVERVIEWThisbriefingwill:•examinethestateofpublicfinances,exploringriskstothegovernment’sfiscalpositionandwhattheserisksentailforthewidereconomy;and•assessvariouspoliciestoimprovethefiscalposition,inparticulartheimpactofdifferentpolicymixesoneconomicgrowth,productivity,andRealPersonalDisposableIncome(RPDI).KEYPOINTS•Givencurrenttaxandspendingplans,thedebt-to-GDPratiostandsatabout98percentandwilldecreaseslightlyoverthenextfiveyearswhilethedeficit-to-GDPratiowillfallfromcurrently5percenttoabout3percent,buttheincominggovernmentwilleitherhavetoraisetaxesorcutspendingtomeettheexistingfiscalrules.•Ratherthanpursuingarbitrary,medium-termfiscaltargets,thenextgovernmentshouldfocusonlong-termeconomicobjectiveswhendecidingtheirtaxandspendingplans.•Morepublicandbusinessinvestmentisneededtocombatclimatechange,boostproductivity,andreturnpublicservicestoanadequatelevel,whichmeansashort-termriseinthedeficitforlong-termgain.•Highdebtanddeficitlevelsdonotnecessarilytranslateintoworseeconomicoutcomes;acredibleplanthatincreasesthedeficitintheshortruncanimprovetheeconomymorethananon-credibleplanthatpromisestodecreasethedeficitbutreducesproductivityandinvestorconfidence.•Whenconsolidatingpublicfinances,thegovernmentshouldnotincreasecorporationtaxordecreasepublicinvestmentasdoingsowouldhavelong-term,neg