美联储-促进价格稳定和强大劳动力市场的货币政策策略（英）.pdf
FinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeriesFederalReserveBoard,Washington,D.C.ISSN1936-2854(Print)ISSN2767-3898(Online)MonetaryPolicyStrategiestoFosterPriceStabilityandaStrongLaborMarketMichaelT.Kiley2024-033Pleasecitethispaperas:Kiley,MichaelT.(2024).MonetaryPolicyStrategiestoFosterPriceStabilityandaStrongLaborMarket,"FinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries2024-033.Washington:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem,https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2024.033.NOTE:Sta workingpapersintheFinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries(FEDS)arepreliminarymaterialscirculatedtostimulatediscussionandcriticalcomment.Theanalysisandconclusionssetfortharethoseoftheauthorsanddonotindicateconcurrencebyothermembersoftheresearchsta ortheBoardofGovernors.ReferencesinpublicationstotheFinanceandEconomicsDiscussionSeries(otherthanacknowledgement)shouldbeclearedwiththeauthor(s)toprotectthetentativecharacterofthesepapers.*Email:michael.t.kiley@frb.gov.TheviewsexpressedhereinarethoseoftheauthoranddonotreflectthoseoftheFederalReserveBoardoritsstaff.IwouldliketothankworkshopparticipantsattheFederalReserveBoard,BenBernanke,FlintBrayton,JonFaust,JosephGagnon,BenJohanssen,DonaldKohn,KurtLewis,AthanasiosOrphanides,GlennRudebusch,DavidReifschneider,LouiseSheiner,DavidWessel,andDavidWilcoxforcommentsandsuggestions.MonetaryPolicyStrategiestoFosterPriceStabilityandaStrongLaborMarketMichaelT.Kiley*May24,2024Version10AbstractIassessmonetarypolicystrategiestofosterpricestabilityandlabormarketstrength.Theassessmentincorporatesarangeofchallenges,includinguncertaintyregardingtheequilibriumrealinterestrate,mismeasurementofeconomicpotential,andbalancingthecostsandbenefitsassociatedwithemploymentshortfallsandlabormarketstrength.IfindthattheELBremainsasignificantconstraint,hinderingachievementoftheinflationobjectiveandworseningemploymentshortfalls.Symmetricpolicyreactionfunctionsmitigatethemostadverseeffectsofemploymentshortfallsbycontributingtoeconomicstability.Make-upstrategiesaddressELBrisks.Thesestrategiescallforpolicytoaccommodatesomeperiodofinflationaboveitslong-runobjectivefollowinganELBepisode.Ialsoconsideranasymmetricshortfallsapproachtopolicy.Thisapproachprovidesaccommodationinresponsetoweakactivitywhileforegoingtighteninginresponsetostrongactivity.Whiletheapproachcan,inprinciple,addressELBrisksbyraisinginflation,itperformspoorly.Theshortfallsapproachexacerbateseconomicvolatility,worsensemploymentshortfalls,andcreatesexcessinflationarypressures.Mismeasurementisnotsufficienttolimittheimportanceofstrongresponsestomeasuredslack.Overall,monetarypolicycanpromotepricestabilityandlabormarketstrengthbyfocusingoneconomicstability,withastrategytargetedtoaddressELBrisks.Keywords:Monetarypolicy;Rulesanddiscretion,effectivelowerbound,symmetriclossfunction,asymmetriclossfunctionJELCodes:E52,E58,E3711.IntroductionInflationtargetinghasbecomethestandardmonetarypolicyapproachamongadvancedeconomies.Followingadoptionbyahandfulofcentralbanksinthe1990s,over60centralbankstargetedinflationbytheearly2020s,reflectingthesuccessof
