世界经济论坛-首席经济学家展望：2024年5月（英）.pdf

ChiefEconomistsOutlookCentrefortheNewEconomyandSocietyMay20242ChiefEconomistsOutlookDisclaimerThisdocumentispublishedbytheWorldEconomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEconomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,Partnersorotherstakeholders.©2024WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrecording,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem.3ChiefEconomistsOutlookChiefEconomistsOutlookMay2024Thisquarterlybriefingbuildsonthelatestpolicydevelopmentresearchaswellasconsultationsandsurveyswithleadingchiefeconomistsfromboththepublicandprivatesectors,organizedbytheWorldEconomicForum’sCentrefortheNewEconomyandSociety.Itaimstosummarizetheemergingcontoursofthecurrenteconomicenvironmentandidentifyprioritiesforfurtheractionbypolicy-makersandbusinessleadersinresponsetothecompoundingshockstotheglobaleconomyfromgeoeconomicandgeopoliticalevents.ThesurveyfeaturedinthisbriefingwasconductedinApril2024.4ChiefEconomistsOutlookContentsExecutivesummary___________________________________________________________51.Amoodofcautiousoptimism_______________________________________________7Growthisweak,butbuilding_________________________________________________7Inflationiselevated,buteasing______________________________________________102.Achallenginggloballandscape____________________________________________13Complexityisbecomingafeatureoftheglobaleconomy________________________13Businessesnavigategrowingheadwinds______________________________________14Policy-makerscalibratetheirresponses_______________________________________163.Long-termprospects_____________________________________________________19Theoutlookforgrowth_____________________________________________________19Policypriorities____________________________________________________________22References_________________________________________________________________26Contributors________________________________________________________________29Acknowledgements__________________________________________________________30Cover:Unsplash5ChiefEconomistsOutlookTheMay2024ChiefEconomistsOutlooklaunchesamidamoodofcautiousoptimismabouttheglobaleconomy.Uncertaintypersists,butsignsofbrighteningarereflectedinthelatestsurvey,withasharpfallintheshareofchiefeconomistsexpectingglobalconditionstoweakenthisyear,from56%inJanuaryto17%.Thereisnearunanimityamongrespondents(97%)thatgeopoliticswillbeasourceofglobaleconomicvolatilityintheremainderof2024.Withalmosthalfoftheworld’spopulationheadingtothepollsthisyear,alargemajority(83%)alsoexpectdomesticpoliticstobeasourceofvolatility.Chiefeconomistsaremoresanguineaboutthelikelyshort-termimpactofrapidtechnologicaladvances,withovertwo-thirdsagainsttheideathatartificialintelligence(AI)willcausevolati