世界银行-巴布亚新几内亚经济更新，2024年5月：投资于你的孩子（英）.pdf

1PapuaNewGuineaEconomicUpdate:InvestinYourChildrenMea2024PublicDisclosureAuthorizedPublicDisclosureAuthorizedPublicDisclosureAuthorizedPublicDisclosureAuthorized23PrefaceandAcknowledgmentsThispublicationistheninthinthecurrentseriesofPapuaNewGuineaEconomicUpdates(PNGEU).Ithastwoprincipalaims.First,itanalyzesthekeyrecentdevelopmentsinPapuaNewGuinea’seconomyandplacestheseinalonger-termandglobalcontext.Basedonthesedevelopmentsandrecentpolicychanges,thePNGEUupdatestheoutlookforthecountry’seconomyandthewelfareofitscitizens.Second,thePNGEUprovidesanin-depthexaminationofaselecteddevelopmentissueandevaluatestheimplicationsofrecenttrendsandpolicyreformsintermsofthegovernment’sstateddevelopmentobjectives.Itisintendedforabroadaudience,includingpolicymakers,businessleaders,andthecommunityofanalystsandprofessionalsengagedinPapuaNewGuinea’sevolvingeconomy.From2023,thePNGEUisproducedonanannualbasis.ThePNGEUwaspreparedbytheMacroeconomics,TradeandInvestmentGlobalPractice,undertheguidanceofStephenN.Ndegwa(CountryDirector),LarsChristianMoller(PracticeManager),KhwimaNthara(CountryManager)andCristianAedo(PracticeManager).ThecoreeconomicteamcomprisesRuslanPiontkivsky,RubayatChowdhury,andYusMedinaPakpahan,withcontributionsfromSharadAlanTandon.ThespecialfocussectionwaspreparedbyLarsM.SondergaardandJoyKerYenWong.BridgetteHogan,SerkanAltin,andRachelLekaprovidedadministrativesupport.DisseminationwasorganizedbyTomPerry,HamishWyatt,andRuthMoiam.TheteamisgratefultotheDepartmentofTreasuryandothergovernmentdepartmentsfortheircollaborationinthedevelopmentofthisreport.TheteamwouldliketoexpressappreciationforfeedbackfromDavidGould,JaneSprouster,WaelMansour,ErgysIslamaj,andHalseyRogers.ThisreportisaproductofthestaffoftheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisreportdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheExecutiveDirectorsoftheWorldBankorthegovernmentstheyrepresent.TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthiswork.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartoftheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries.[CoverdesignisbyGreenhouseStudio.CoverphotographbyConorAshleigh.Allrightsreserved.]TobeincludedonanemaildistributionlistforthisEconomicUpdateseriesandrelatedpublications,pleasecontactRuthMoiam:rmoiam@worldbank.org.Forquestionsandcommentsrelatingtothispublication,pleasecontactRuslanPiontkivsky:rpiontkivsky@worldbank.org.ForinformationabouttheWorldBankanditsactivitiesinPapuaNewGuinea,pleasevisitwww.worldbank.org/png.4PrefaceandacknowledgmentsTableofcontentsExecutivesummaryAbbreviationsandacronymsA.Economicupdate:moderategrowthandbettermacroeconomicpolicies1.Recenteconomicdevelopments1.1.Economicgrowth1.2.Fiscaldevelopments1.3.Monetarypolicyandpricedevelopments1.4.Externalsector2.Outlookandrisks2.1.Globaleconomicoutlookandrisks2.2.PapuaNewGuinea’seconomicoutlookandrisksB.SpecialFocus:I