世界银行-冲突十年后叙利亚家庭的福利（英）.pdf

TheWelfareof SyrianHouseholdsafteraDecadeof ConflictPublicDisclosureAuthorizedPublicDisclosureAuthorizedPublicDisclosureAuthorizedPublicDisclosureAuthorizedTheWelfareofSyrianHouseholdsafteraDecadeofConflict©2024InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank1818HStreetNWWashingtonDC20433Telephone:202-473-1000Internet:www.worldbank.orgThisworkisaproductofthestaffofTheWorldBank.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofTheWorldBank,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracy,completeness,orcurrencyofthedataincludedinthisworkanddoesnotassumeresponsibilityforanyerrors,omissions,ordiscrepanciesintheinfor-mation,orliabilitywithrespecttotheuseoforfailuretousetheinformation,methods,processes,orconclusionssetforth.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartofTheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries.NothinghereinshallconstituteorbeconstruedorconsideredtobealimitationuponorwaiveroftheprivilegesandimmunitiesofTheWorldBank,allofwhicharespecificallyreserved.RightsandPermissionsThematerialinthisworkissubjecttocopyright.BecauseTheWorldBankencouragesdisseminationofitsknowledge,thisworkmaybereproduced,inwholeorinpart,fornoncommercialpurposesaslongasfullattributiontothisworkisgiven.Anyqueriesonrightsandlicenses,includingsubsidiaryrights,shouldbeaddressedtoWorldBankPublications,TheWorldBankGroup,1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433,USA;fax:202-522-2625;e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org.iiiContentsAbbreviationsandAcronyms...viAcknowledgementsviiExecutiveSummary.ixيذيفنتصّخلمxiiIntroduction.xiv1.TheConflictinSyria.....12.DemographicImpactoftheConflict113.LaborMarketImpactoftheConflict174.HumanCapitalImpactoftheConflict.....255.WelfareofSyrianHouseholds336.ConcludingRemarks...47Bibliography.49Annex1:TheHumanitarianNeedsAssessmentProgram.50Annex2:RegressionResults....52ListofFiguresFigure1Areasofcontrolbydifferentpartiestotheconflict,2015,2018,2020,and 2022.....2Figure2Conflict-relatedfatalitiesinSyriabetween2011and2021,cumulativedistribution.3Figure3Conflicttrends,2011–2022.....5Figure4Totalconflict-relatedeventsanddeaths2011–2022,bygovernorate...5Figure5Conflict-relatedincidentsanddeathsper100,000inhabitants,bygovernorate....6Figure6Internalandinternationaldisplacement,stocksandflows9Figure7Distributionofpopulationbygovernorate,2011and2022.....9Figure8PopulationestimatesforSyria.12Figure9Syriapopulationpyramids,2010and2022.13THEWELFAREOFSYRIANHOUSEHOLDSAFTERADECADEOFCONFLICTivFigure10Masculinityratioin2022,byagegroup....14Figure11Trendsinunder-5mortalityrate.....15Figure12NumberofabsentmembersforhouseholdscurrentlyresidinginSyria,by reason of absence...15Figure13Householdswithmaleabsentmemberslivingabroad,2018–2022...16Figure14Changesinworkingagepopulation,2010–2022..19Figure15Trendsinlaborforceparticipation,employmenttopopulationandunemplo