平准化能源成本+（2024版）.pdf

LEVELIZEDCOSTOFENERGY+WITHSUPPORTFROMJune2024TableofContentsEXECUTIVESUMMARYLAZARD’SLEVELIZEDCOSTOFENERGYANALYSIS—VERSION17.0LAZARD’SLEVELIZEDCOSTOFSTORAGEANALYSIS—VERSION9.0LAZARD’SLEVELIZEDCOSTOFHYDROGENANALYSIS—VERSION4.0APPENDIXLCOEv17.0LCOSv9.0LCOHv4.0IIIIIIIV37182630ABC314045ExecutiveSummaryCopyright2024LazardThisanalysishasbeenpreparedbyLazardforgeneralinformationalandillustrativepurposesonly,anditisnotintendedtobe,andshouldnotbeconstruedas,financialorotheradvice.Nopartofthismaterialmaybecopied,photocopiedorduplicatedinanyformbyanymeansorredistributedwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofLazard.(1)ThisanalysishasbeencompiledusingU.S.-focuseddata.ExecutiveSummary—LevelizedCostofEnergyVersion17.0(1)TheresultsofourLevelizedCostofEnergy(“LCOE”)analysisreinforcewhatweobserveacrossthePower,Energy&InfrastructureIndustry—sizableandwell-capitalizedcompaniesthatcantakeadvantageofsupplychainandothereconomiesofscale,andthathavestrongbalancesheetsupporttoweatherfluctuationsinthemacroenvironment,willcontinueleadingthebuild-outofnewrenewableenergyassets.ThisisparticularlytrueinarisingLCOEenvironmentlikewhatwehaveobservedinthisyear’sanalysis.Amplifyingthisobservation,andnotovertlycoveredinourreport,arethecomplexitiesrelatedtocurrentlyobserveddemandgrowthandgrid-relatedconstraints,amongotherfactors.KeytakeawaysfromVersion17.0ofLazard’sLCOEinclude:1.LowEndLCOEValuesIncrease;OverallRangesTightenDespitehighendLCOEdeclinesforselectedrenewableenergytechnologies,thelowendsofourLCOEhaveincreasedforthefirsttimeever,drivenbythepersistenceofcertaincostpressures(e.g.,highinterestrates,etc.).ThesetwophenomenaresultintighterLCOEranges(offsettingthesignificantrangeexpansionobservedlastyear)andrelativelystableLCOEaveragesyear-over-year.Thepersistenceofelevatedcostscontinuestoreinforcethecentralthemenotedabove—sizableandwell-capitalizedcompaniesthatcantakeadvantageofsupplychainandothereconomiesofscale,andthathavestrongbalancesheetsupporttoweatherfluctuationsinthemacroenvironment,willcontinueleadingthebuild-outofnewrenewableenergyassets.2.BaseloadPowerNeedsWillRequireDiverseGenerationFleetsDespitethesustainedcost-competitivenessofrenewableenergytechnologies,diversegenerationfleetswillberequiredtomeetbaseloadpowerneedsoverthelongterm.Thisisparticularlyevidentintoday’sincreasingpowerdemandenvironmentdrivenby,amongotherthings,therapidgrowthofartificialintelligence,datacenterdeployment,reindustrialization,onshoringandelectrification.Aselectricitygenerationfromintermittentrenewablesincreases,thetimingimbalancebetweenpeakcustomerdemandandrenewableenergyproductionisexacerbated.Assuch,theoptimalsolutionformanyregionsistocomplementnewrenewableenergytechnologieswitha“firming”resourcesuchasenergystorageornew/existingandfullydispatchablegenerationtechnologies(ofwhichCCGTsremainthemostprevalent).Thisobservationisreinforcedbytheresultsofthisyear’smarginalcostanalysis,whichshowsanincreasingpricecompetitivenessofexistinggas-firedgenerationascomparedtonew-buildrenewableenergytechnologies.Assuch,a