Morgan Stanley Fixed-Global Macro Commentary May 30-108462085.pdf

M234ExhiGlobalMacroCommentary|NorthAmericaMay30MorganStanley&Co.LLCAlexandraMaierStrategistAlexandra.Maier@morganstanley.com+1212761-0428MartinWTobias,CFAStrategistMartin.Tobias@morganstanley.com+1212761-6076ZoeKStraussStrategistZoe.Strauss@morganstanley.com+1212761-0407LenoyDujonUS/CanadaEconomistLenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.com+1212761-2779MorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc+Marie-AnaisCFrancoisStrategistMarie-Anais.Francois@morganstanley.com+44207425-1877MorganStanleyMUFGSecuritiesCo.,Ltd.+HiromuUezatoResearchAssociateHiromu.Uezato@morganstanleymufg.com+8136836-8431MorganStanleyAsiaLimited+GekTengKhooStrategistGek.Teng.Khoo@morganstanley.com+8523963-0303USTsrallyaftersoftGDP;SNB"sJordanseesupwardriskininflation;SpanishandBelgianCPIsendEGByieldslower;CNHoutperformsamidPBoCcomments;Fed"sWilliamssayspolicyis"well-positioned";technologystockssendequitieslower;DXYat104.76(-0.3%);US10yat4.546%(-6.6bp).•Softerbt123526782datawithslower-than-expectedinflationandconsumptionsend3592yieldslowerinarelativelyparallelmanner.•50:28USTyDSBR2KJUDGB2seesa"smallupwardrisk"tothebank’sinflationforecast,supportingACN2(+1.1%);SNB’sJunemeetingreprices~3.5bphigher.•ZXUJYSGB2DXUGRyJBpartiallyretracesWednesday’ssell-offafter5YGByTP2GBD2:SHFyGB2A8O2dataforMaywereinlinewithexpectations;bLM2:XBDfalls4bp.•A0C2(+0.3%)outperformsamid8:JA22222222commentsthata“powerfulcurrency”requiresFXstabilityandasthePBoCvowstoimprovetheCNHliquiditysupplymechanism.•0SI2WJUV2NSD28USTyDSBR2ayHHyGeT2222222saysthatthecurrentstanceofmonetarypolicyis"wellpositioned"toslowinflationinthesecondhalfoftheyear.•Technologystocksheadlower,sending5w82oLL(-0.6%)intotheredaftermediareportsoftheUSreiningintheamountofAIchipsalestotheMiddleEast.PleaserefertoourlatestGlobalInsight(CanadaEconomics&GlobalMacroStrategyMid-YearOutlook)aswellasourrecentpublicationsandcollaborations(ECBPreview:CuttingRates:CautiousEdition;PolandEconomicsandMacroStrategy:NBPPreview:InContemplationMode).7SrSHJYSD2nGUVSRTUnitedStates:WeakdataintheUShelpedretracesomeoftheabruptbear-steepeningfromthepastweek,andUSTsendedtheday~5-7bpricher.Overnight,buyersstartedtoemergeandUSTsopenedtheNYsessionwithyields2-3bplower.Downsidesurprisesineconomicdataacceleratedtherally.Secondrevisionsof1Q24GDPshowedtheeconomygrewslowerthaninitiallyreportedto1.3%q/q(C:1.3%;MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoFINRArestrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.May30,202410:59PMGMTMUpdate2P:1.6%;4Q24:3.4%),withpersonalcons