Morgan Stanley-China Financials Better-than-expected progress on risk cont...-108563458.pdf

2024-06-17 14:46
Morgan Stanley-China Financials Better-than-expected progress on risk cont...-108563458.pdf

MIndusChinaFinancials|AsiaPacificBetter-than-expectedprogressonriskcontrolanddigestion;raisepricetargetsMorganStanleyAsiaLimited+RichardXu,CFAEquityAnalystRichard.Xu@morganstanley.com+8522848-6729BerylYangResearchAssociateBeryl.Yang@morganstanley.com+8523963-2224ChiyaoHuangEquityAnalystChiyao.Huang@morganstanley.com+8523963-4624ChinaFinancialsAsiaPacificIndustryViewAttractiveExhibit1:SummaryofchangestopricetargetsNewOldChangeNewOldHshare(HKD)(HKD)(HKD)ICBC1398.HKOW5.604.5024.4%4.4227%0.480.39CCB0939.HKOW7.106.0018.3%5.5428%0.500.40BOC3988.HKOW4.603.7024.3%3.7024%0.500.41ABC1288.HKOW4.403.4029.4%3.2735%0.530.40PSBC1658.HKOW5.304.8010.4%4.4120%0.560.50BoCom3328.HKUW5.003.7035.1%5.89-15%0.340.25CMB3968.HKOW44.5035.9024.0%34.8028%0.970.77CITIC0998.HKEW4.503.7021.6%4.77-6%0.300.25Minsheng1988.HKOW4.203.7013.5%2.9642%0.300.26Everbright6818.HKUW1.801.800.0%2.51-28%0.200.19CRCB3618.HKUW2.602.3013.0%3.60-28%0.200.18NewOldChangeNewOldAshare(RMB)(RMB)(RMB)ICBC601398.SSEW5.504.4025.0%5.431%0.540.43CCB601939.SSEW7.005.9018.6%7.04-1%0.560.45BOC601988.SSEW4.503.6025.0%4.441%0.560.46ABC601288.SSEW4.303.3030.3%4.39-2%0.590.45BoCom601328.SSUW4.903.6036.1%7.05-30%0.370.28CMB600036.SSOW43.8035.3024.1%34.2828%1.080.86CITIC601998.SSUW4.403.6022.2%7.21-39%0.340.28Minsheng600016.SSEW4.203.6016.7%3.917%0.330.29Everbright601818.SSUW1.801.705.9%3.24-44%0.220.21Industrial601166.SSOW22.2018.6019.4%17.8924%0.600.51PingAn000001.SZOW13.6011.9014.3%11.1122%0.600.51SPDB600000.SSUW4.303.8013.2%8.34-48%0.200.17HuaXia600015.SSUW4.003.5014.3%6.89-42%0.200.18Beijing601169.SSEW5.204.5015.6%5.82-11%0.410.37Ningbo002142.SZOW34.3030.5012.5%24.7738%1.141.01Chengdu601838.SSOW18.7015.6019.9%15.8018%0.930.90Hangzhou600926.SSEW13.2010.6024.5%13.59-3%0.710.66RatingLastcloseUpsidePricetargetTargetPBLastcloseUpsidePricetargetTargetPBSource:MorganStanleyResearchestimate.ClosingpricesasofMay31,2024.WereduceourforecastsmodestlytofactorinsomeriseinindustrialNPLsin2025duetoourexpectationofaneffectivesupplysidereform2.0.WeraiseourpricetargetsforbanksonreducedconcernsgivengoodprogressonriskcontrolanddigestionforLGFVsandpropertyloans.ItrIryrViIewSorcI:eeriIMcSoigIaliIeSRrIhnmIcraSl.CIp.If3f1I,SwwSop.MIRSCreiIcreelcreIp.If3f2I:.CIf3f04Wecontinuetoexpectmoderatingloanandassetgrowthasregulatorscontinuetoreducewindowguidanceonloangrowthandurgebankstoreduceself-circulatingloans.Inaddition,weexpectmorerationalgrowthinindustrialloansstartingin2025tohelpreduceovercapacityrisks.Specifically,weexpectoverallbankloangrowthtoslowfrom9%in2023to6.8%in2025and7.1%in2026beforesomereboundin2027.Positively,weexpectsomeNIMreboundstartingin2H25,followingsomemodestpressuresin1H25,tohelpdigestindustrialNPLs.Specifically,webelievesloweroverallcreditgrowthwillsupportloanyieldsandalsoreducecompetitionfordeposits,whichshouldalsohelpbanksreducefundingcosts.mSCreiwoIcrClVp.MISlcIr:c.p.MeI,ScrV:eieI,ScIRSeiIa:.reI:eIorI,:ViScIp.IgpMgrcIhgaI,ScR:ipS.I:eIeSRrIp.Cleicp:wIV::VpioISipRpn:ipS.IRpMgiIei:ciIIp.If3f04WeexpectgrossNPLformationt

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