天和防务(300397)深度报告:军民融合有望迎来业绩拐点,多领域业务蓄势待发.pdf

2024-07-09 17:37
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天和防务(300397)深度报告:军民融合有望迎来业绩拐点,多领域业务蓄势待发.pdf

请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%000300.SH300397.SZ投资要点➢➢➢➢➢➢2一、军民融合创新型企业,业绩有望迎来拐点.....41.天和防务:专注于提供综合防务解决方案的新型高科技企业....42.2024Q1公司扭亏为盈,业绩有望迎来拐点63.重视研发提高产品竞争力,稳步推进项目建设完善业务布局....7二、军工装备:低空近防业务积极开拓,数字海洋业务持续发展.81.现代战争中无人机使用频次高,末端防空重要性凸显...82.防空系统市场持续增长,公司低空近防业务积极开拓.103.数字海洋:行业快速发展,公司业务逐渐向体系化和规模化发展10三、通信电子:5G射频业务稳健发展,高导热介质胶膜有望成为公司新的利润增长点.121.5G射频:公司布局器件、芯片、材料,5G-A有望驱动5G市场新一轮增长122.半导体封装及基板:子公司高导热介质胶膜已批产,有望为公司打造新的利润增长点...163.产业布局围绕感知能力,发挥产业链协同效应18四、低空经济商业进程提速,空管保障业务有望充分受益....191.产业支持政策频出,低空经济商业进程提速...192.公司空管软硬件产品布局全面,有望用于低空经济....243.低空大数据支撑下的天融工程助力空管业务发展..27五、盈利预测与投资建议28六、风险提示.....30...4....5....5....5.6....6....67...7.....7.....8..9....9.....939.10...10.1111..11.12..13..13..14.....14..15..15....1515.....16..16..17..17..18...18.19...19..19..19.....20..24..2526...2627.....20.....21...23..28.29....314⚫⚫5⚫68.712.25.65.03.51.4228.7%40.9%-54.3%-10.2%-30.1%66.9%-100.0%-50.0%0.0%50.0%100.0%150.0%200.0%250.0%0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.0201920202021202220232024Q1营业收入增速80.1%9.9%4.1%2.7%2.1%1.0%0.2%电子元器件行业大数据系列产品及其他便携式防空导弹指挥系统系列产品海洋系列产品物联感知及其他雷达系列房屋租赁及其他服务业电子产品贸易-200%-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.5201920202021202220232024Q1归母净利润增速743.7%38.3%30.1%28.6%20.8%36.1%16.9%16.5%-13.8%-33.1%-63.6%4.2%-80.0%-60.0%-40.0%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%201920202021202220232024Q1销售毛利率销售净利率5.8%2.8%9.3%9.0%11.4%5.7%9.1%9.9%20.1%23.9%28.2%14.2%-0.7%1.6%2.2%-6.4%-1.3%0.6%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%201920202021202220232024Q1销售费用率管理费用率财务费用率0.921.171.211.551.533.7%27.0%3.7%28.3%-1.7%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.601.8020192020202120222023研发投入增速80.300.692.985.247.633.703.773.933.803.480.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.0020192020202120222023在建工程固定资产910182109196539198538210443232531240333257973285931291958296439050000100000150000200000250000300000350000201420152016201720182019202020212022202311121314114,000134,000118,00030,00037,00025,00045,000262,00087,000111,00093,000118,00083,00051,00026,00067,00095,000132,000138,000101,000050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,00015161718192021222324⚫⚫252627282930312021202220232024E2025E2026E2021202220232024E2025E2026E5.595.023.518.679.7410.913.903.582.785.526.136.760.090.070.070.150.170.200.520.450.400.430.490.551.121.200.991.041.071.090.951.121.221.261.271.310.12-0.32-0.050.050.070.10-0.24-0.16-0.230.000.000.010.05-0.41-0.070.070.070.08-0.000.000.000.000.000.000.070.040.030.030.030.030.00-0.000.000.000.000.00-0.000.000.000.000.000.000.370.160.150.150.150.15-0.87-1.44-2.010.470.851.270.000.030.000.000.000.000.010.010.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00-0.88-1.41-2.020.470.851.27-0.110.250.21-0.00-0.00-0.00-0.77-1.66-2.230.470.851.27-0.05-0.15-0.270.060.100.15-0.72-1.51-1.960.410.751.12-0.05-1.01-1.321.882.623.02-0.94-2.26-2.410.520.871.27-0.14-0.29-0.380.080.140.222021202220232024E2025E2026E-54.3%-10.2%-30.1%147%12.3%12.0%-137%-64.5%-40.3%123.4%80.0%2021202220232024E2025E2026E-129%-128%-19.1%125%67.6%46.0%-0.8-1.7-2.20.30.71.2-102%-2058%-30.0%24

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