UBS Fixed Income-Global Rates Strategy _Will heavy supply lead to high rates...-103836978.pdf
ab8September2023GlobalResearchandEvidenceLab8Septmpbr2t0b3pbrGloatRrpslt2chhltrpntbStRaGRt3pbr2dThemediumtermdeficitoutlookistroubling8SepStmpber2b0S3ebSGltl3eopSaRschnedEveiLTu8fedSpSe3SeRkseGmpStEv3vegSBSpeEBSeEebSGltl3erSymdeiLTW8eE0ElgTenSGltl3veEveEeoSptSg3E0SemGewn,eEpSeEyvmeBSp-el0er-elv3mpltEyev3EgbEpbvTeeeeButsupplytradestendtohaveverypoorSharperatiosz2ooy-eSGGSt3ve3Sgbe3merSevymdedl3eEe0pSE3ebSEyemGet-tyltEyegmlvSeEymg0e3SedE-TeeehgeoEp3lt2yEpfelgerSEpeAEpNS3vet-tyltEyeplvNe3Sgbve3medmpNelge3Semoomvl3SeblpSt3lmgeEvev3p2t32pEyev2ooy-eSGGSt3vTeeYgbe3mvSet-tyltEyelAoEt3ve3Sgbe3mebmAlgE3STeeWethinktermpremiumswillrise,butnotalltermpremiummodelssuggesttermpremiumsareverylow8SeYRCeAmbSye3Sgbve3me0S3e3SeAmv3eAEpNS3eE33Sg3lmgfeSBSge3m20el3eAENSveAmpSeEvv2Ao3lmgve3EgeAmv3eAmbSyvelgempbSpe3meEyymdeGmpeAmpSeSGGltlSg3etEyt2yE3lmgTeeYgbe3SeYRCe3SpAeopSAl2AelveG2p3Sv3eEdE-eGpmAel3veymg0e3SpAeEBSpE0STeeIlAaFpl03fedltelvevmASdE3eAmpSevmolv3ltE3Sbe3EgeYRCfebmSvegm3evmde3SevEASebS0pSSemGeom3Sg3lEyeGmpeEepSrm2gbelge3SpAeopSAl2AvTeeYgbe3SeOkzeAmbSyfedlte2vSveEeDEAly3mgaF2eEoopmEtfeEve3SpAeopSAl2AveGElpy-etymvSe3me3Slpeymg0e3SpAeEBSpE0STeeSupplyeffectsseemtobenon-linear,andhavetakentimetomaterializeinthepast8SetyEvvltev2ooy-evmtNedEvedSge3SeOzepEgeEer2b0S3ev2poy2veGpmAeQUinaQUcLTeeR2pBSeEgbevopSEbeSGGSt3vedSpSegm3eAE3SplEye2g3lye3Se3lpbe-SEpemGe3Sev2poy2vfedSgelvLcve8pSEv2plSvelgBSp3SbeucrovedlySelvLcvevdEovegSBSpelgBSp3SbTeeWhilesupplyisaspreadtightener,westillpreferspreadwidenersacrossthecurveFSe3lgNevmp3eEgbelg3SpASblE3SevopSEbveEpSemBSpSv3lAE3lg0eplvNemGetSg3pEyerEgNevEySvemGe8pSEv2plSve3meGlgEgtSeQdelg3SpBSg3lmgTeeFlySebmyyEpevEySvedlyyeEBSeEgelAoEt3emge8pSEv2plSvfe3SeSGGSt3e3Sgbve3merSevmASdE3e0pEb2EyfepSb2tlg0e3SeopltSelAoEt3TeeYgbeE3e3Seymg0eSgbfelGevopSEbve0S3e3mmelgBSp3SbeAEg-elgBSv3mpvetEgeAmBSem23emGepStSlBSbeGlgSbeomvl3lmgveEgbelg3mev2rv3l323SveylNSeymg0velge8pSEv2p-eG232pSvfe3m3EyepS32pgevdEovemge8pSEv2plSvfeEgbermgbeGmpdEpbvTee8E3evS3veylAl3vemgemdelgBSp3Sbeymg0evopSEbvetEge0S3Teeeeee8lvepSomp3eEverSSgeopSoEpSber-eOkzezSt2pl3lSveffRTeeANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDREQUIREDDISCLOSURES,includinginformationontheQuantitativeResearchReviewpublishedbyUBS,beginonpageaFbInterestRateswymrEyMichaelClohertyz3pE3S0lv3eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeAlNSTtymSp3-o2rvTtmAeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeerLalcmaaLieulnLEmmanouilKarimalisz3pE3S0lv3eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeSAAEgm2lyTNEplAEylvo2rvTtmAeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeruualcaauWaencccGiuliaSpecchiaz3pE3S0lv3eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee0l2ylETvoSttlEo2rvTtmAeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeerWLaliamluelumaeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeGlobalRatesStrategy8September2023ab2GlobalRatesStratechndSResearEvWillheavysupplyleadtohighrates?nSvol3Sevl0glGltEg3etmgtSpgeErm23eEev3p2t32pEyeAmBSe3meEel0SpepE3SeSgBlpmgASg3feLcveEpSevlAoy-erEtNe3meySBSyvevSSgeyEv3est3mrSpTezmASemGe3lvedmpp-eErm23el0SpepE3SvetmASveGpmAe3SeGEt3e3E3epE3SelNSveEBSegm3evEpoy-evymdSbe3SeStmgmA-fepElvlg0etmgtSpge3E3eptelvel0SpTeeDmdSBSpfe3Se-SEph-SEpetmpSeR,heEve0mgSeGpmAeiT
