2023Q1美国写字楼空置率报告-15页.pdf

ResearchOccupierandinvestorcautiondrivescontinuedsofteningofofficefundamentalsOfficeOutlookUnitedStates|Q120232|U.S.OfficeOutlook|Q12023©2023JonesLangLaSalleIP,Inc.Allrightsreserved.ExecutivesummaryJacobRowden|Manager|U.S.OfficeResearchEconomyCorporatecost-cuttingeffortscontinuedinQ1,includinglayoffsandreductionsinofficeportfolios,technologycompanies,whicharecuttingbackafteraperiodofprotractedgrowth.Bankfailuresraisedconcernsovercapitalavailabilityandcredittightening.LeasingU.S.officeleasingvolumefell10.7%inQ1,thethirdconsecutivequarterofslowingdemand.Despitethequarterlydecline,strongactivityfromthefirsthalfof2022wasenoughtokeeprolling12-monthvolume2%highernationally.NetAbsorptionAlthoughoccupancylossescontinuetomount,theimpactisfeltprimarilyamongolder,commodityassets.Netabsorptioninofficesbuiltsince2015increasedbyanadditional6.6millions.f.,drivingcumulativegainstoover100millions.f.sincetheonsetofthepandemic.VacancyVacancyratesincreasedby49basispointsinQ1toarecord20.1%.Newsubleaseadditionsinthefirstquartertotaled15.1millions.f.,anearly10%quarter-over-quarterincrease.Subleasevacancyrepresented3%oftotalofficeinventory.RentalRatesDespitechallengingunderlyingmarketfundamentals,nationalaskingrentscontinuetogrow,reaching$38.96pers.f.inQ1,anincreaseof0.3%sinceQ4.Supplyanddemanddynamicswithinhigh-qualityClassAandTrophyspacearevastlydifferentinmanymarkets.DevelopmentConstructionhascomeunderheightenedpressureamidvolatilityandcometoanearhaltintheofficesector.Some8.9millions.f.ofnewspacedeliveredinQ1,andjustover2millions.f.brokeground.3|U.S.OfficeOutlook|Q12023©2023JonesLangLaSalleIP,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Throughthefirstfewmonthsoftheyear,companiescontinuedtoshiftintodefensiveposturinginpreparationforapossibleeconomicslowdown,withmanygroupsannouncinglayoffsandalargeshareofofficetenantstrimmingtheirportfoliosthroughsubleaseadditions.InMarch,thefailuresofSiliconValleyBank,SignatureBankandCreditSuisseinjectednewfoundvolatilityintothemarket,throughdirectimpactstoclienttenantswhosefinancingwasputinjeopardy,aswellasgrowingconcernsmorebroadlythatdiminutionofofficevaluesoverthepastyearwillleadtofurthercreditchallengestobankswithlargecommercialrealestateexposure.Priortothebankdefaults,theeconomicpicturewasbrightening.Whileinflationremainselevated,withannualgrowthratesstillordersofmagnitudehigherthanFederalReservetargets,year-over-yearinflationhasfallenmorethan400basispointsfrompeaklevelsinJune2022asofMarch,,andthedriversofinflationaresofteningnotably.Supplychainpressureshaveeased,withbacklogsattheUnitedStates’largestport,thePortofLosAngeles/LongBeach,decliningmorethan90%sincethesecondhalfof2022andcontainershippingpricesfallingmorethan80%frompeaklevels;thewaveoffiscalstimulusisbeingabsorbedandfederalgovernmentexpenditureshavefallenby10%onarolling12-monthbasis;andthestrengthoftheconsumerissoftening,withrealbusinesssectorwagesfalling4.3%sincepeakinginQ42020andpersonalsavingsratesdecliningtothelowestlevelsincetheGreatFinancialCrisis.Tocombatinflation,theFederalReservehas