来水改善，量利齐升.pdf

敬请参阅最后一页特别声明1业绩简评◼10月30日晚间公司发布23年三季报，1~3Q23实现营收578.6亿元，同比9.0%；实现归母净利215.2亿元，同比4.1%。3Q23实现营收268.8亿元，同比+24.4%；实现归母净利126.4亿元，同比+38.1%。经营分析◼3Q23来水改善，低基数下发电量同比+22.8%。长江游流域3Q23来水显著改善，在去年同期极端高温干旱带来的低基数效应下，Q23乌东德和三峡水库来水总量分别同比偏丰15.4%、35.8%；公司境内六座梯级电站完成总发电量1001.2亿千瓦时，同比+43.6%。其中，乌东德电站3Q23单季度发电量高于上半年总和；三峡和白鹤滩电站3Q23单季度发电量与上半年发电量总和均仅相差1.2亿千瓦时。◼汛期来水改善助公司完成蓄水计划，六库联调电量有望持续修复。公司预计在10月20日2023年度蓄水计划，总可用水量达410亿立方米，蓄能338亿千瓦时。据测算，计划完成后六座梯级水库蓄能将同比增加超过90亿千瓦时，展现出龙头水库的强大调节能力。梯级水库蓄能将用于平滑未来来水波动，将作为增量反映在4Q23以及2024年，电量有望延续修复态势。◼电量改善Q23毛利率.0pct。水电作为重资产行业，成本构成以折旧和财务费用为主。1H23来水偏枯致使电量减发，叠加报告期内白鹤滩水电站全额计提折旧费用致使营业成本大幅增加8.7pct。而3Q23来水大幅改善，增发摊低度电折旧，公司毛利率环比回升8.0pct。盈利预测、估值与评◼乌白注入+来水改善+六库联调，公司业绩有望改善。我们预计公司2023~2025年分别实现归母净利307.0/344.1/384.2亿元，EPS分别为1.26/1.51/1.69元，公司股票现价对应估值分别为18倍、15倍和13倍，维持“买入”评级风险提示来水不及预期；电价不及预期。公司基本情况（人民币）项目202120222023E2024E2025E营业收入(百万元)55,64652,06077,82288,64795,717营业收入增长率-3.70%-6.44%49.48%13.91%7.98%归母净利润(百万元)26,27321,30930,70034,41438,415归母净利润增长率-0.09%-18.89%44.07%12.10%11.63%摊薄每股收益(元)1.1550.9371.2551.5131.689每股经营性现金流净额1.571.362.762.923.06ROE(归属母公司)(摊薄)14.51%11.49%15.61%16.62%17.58%P/E19.6522.4117.8914.8413.29P/B2.852.572.792.472.34来源：公司年报、国金证券研究所公司点评敬请参阅最后一页特别声明2附录：三张报表预测摘要损益表（人民币百万元）资产负债表（人民币百万元）2020202120222023E2024E2025E2020202120222023E2024E2025E主营业务收入57,78355,64652,06077,82288,64795,717货币资金9,2319,9309,3027,6829,58410,960增长率-3.7%-6.4%49.5%13.9%8.0%应收款项4,1654,3985,23113,76415,67816,929主营业务成本-21,149-21,113-22,233-33,699-37,629-39,850存货282470453692773819%销售收入36.6%37.9%42.7%43.3%42.4%41.6%其他流动资产9973,126316618626630毛利36,63434,53329,82844,12351,01955,867流动资产14,67617,92315,30222,75626,66129,338%销售收入63.4%62.1%57.3%56.7%57.6%58.4%%总资产4.4%5.5%4.7%4.0%4.7%5.2%营业税金及附加-1,193-1,164-1,072-1,634-1,862-2,010长期投资60,01166,92573,22576,94184,94196,941%销售收入2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%固定资产234,113221,604214,222437,867426,395410,311销售费用-115-150-165-230-262-282%总资产70.8%67.4%65.5%77.6%75.3%72.4%%销售收入0.2%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%无形资产21,62621,21623,34525,06626,87828,689管理费用-1,293-1,360-1,360-1,401-1,596-1,723非流动资产316,151310,640311,966541,174539,477537,170%销售收入2.2%2.4%2.6%1.8%1.8%1.8%%总资产95.6%94.5%95.3%96.0%95.3%94.8%研发费用-40-39-90-311-355-383资产总计330,827328,563327,268563,930566,139566,508%销售收入0.1%0.1%0.2%0.4%0.4%0.4%短期借款47,98229,75634,949110,181100,60791,046息税前利润（EBIT）33,99331,82027,14140,54746,94551,468应付款项17,85514,16412,09324,39427,26828,907%销售收入58.8%57.2%52.1%52.1%53.0%53.8%其他流动负债12,6309,4865,41712,19912,83413,495财务费用-4,986-4,751-4,092-7,250-8,659-8,152流动负债78,46753,40652,458146,774140,708133,449%销售收入8.6%8.5%7.9%9.3%9.8%8.5%长期贷款14,44736,43938,618178,618175,618170,618资产减值损失-1929-278000其他长期负债59,59248,42940,43830,64430,52930,446公允价值变动收益-173335-3851,16900负债152,505138,275131,514356,035346,855334,512投资收益4,0535,4264,6004,2325,0005,000普通股股东权益172,118181,064185,488196,679207,004218,528%税前利润12.5%16.7%17.5%11.0%11.6%10.4%其中：股本22,74222,74222,74222,74222,74222,742营业利润32,89632,87626,93638,69943,29648,326未分配利润67,81576,76879,54190,267100,592112,116营业利润率56.9%59.1%51.7%49.7%48.8%50.5%少数股东权益6,2039,22410,26611,2151