2024年中国房地产展望报告-戴德梁行-202312.pdf

年月••••••介绍•••••••42024010%4%8%12%16%20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%030,00060,00090,000120,000150,000房地产开发投资（亿元）房地产开发投资同比增幅5202402051015202530352023F2024F2025F2026F2027F2028F2029F2030F新能源储能—新增装机量（GW）7.007.508.008.509.009.5010.0010.50绿色甲级写字楼非绿色甲级写字楼620240340.74%50.00%9.26%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%A.是B.否C.不知道百万平方米67%53%35%30%22%11%9%8%0%20%40%60%80%0123456深圳广州成都武汉上海台北香港北京2024202520262027未来供应占存量比例7202404-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%服务零售餐饮收入商品零售金银珠宝类烟酒类服装、鞋帽、针纺织品类体育、娱乐用品类中西药品类石油及制品类化妆品类汽车类粮油、食品类通讯器材类日用品类家具类饮料类家用电器和音像器材类文化办公用品类建筑及装潢材料类8202405NCBD0%2%4%6%8%10%12%0102030405020182019202020212022工业增加值（万亿元）比上年增长(%)0%10%20%30%40%50%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,0002016201720182019202020212022F2023F2024F2025F预制菜市场规模（亿元）比上年增长(%)920240601,0002,0003,0004,0005,000201720182019202020212022Q1-Q32023上海北京深圳广州其他城市香港台北16%29%25%23%28%24%13%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,500201720182019202020212022Q1-Q32023内资境外人民币亿元人民币亿元user--sabrina.d.wei@cushwake.com202410•–•–•–•–03060902020202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027F040801201602020202120222023F2024F2025F2026F写字楼零售物业存量（平方米）13,638,81014,797,0052,944,706空置率18.7%10.3%17.4%租金（元/平方米/月）297.92,250.060.3资本化率5.0%5.6%4.9%11•–•–•–•–3.5%4.5%5.5%6.5%2015201620172018201920202021202220230204060802020202120222023F2024F2025Fshaun.fv.brodie@cushwake.com202412•–•–•–•–万平方米010020030020202021202220232024F2025F2026F05010015020020202021202220232024F2025F2026F2027F写字楼零售物业存量（平方米）16,423,19822,974,92510,476,000空置率21.8%9.6%15.1%租金（元/平方米/月）239.51,873.349.3资本化率核心4.5%新兴4.8%核心4.5%新兴4.8%4.8%202413•–•–03060901202020202120222023F2024F•–•–3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%20152016201720182019202020212022Q32023xiaoduan.zhang@cushwake.com写字楼零售物业存量（平方米）8,089,1756,599,4121,702,485空置率26.06%8.95%1.33%租金（元/平方米/月）186.45802.9551.16资本化率4.8%4.8%5.0%202414••••030609020202021202220232024F2025F2026F06012018020202021202220232024F2025F2026F202415•–•–•–•–0306090202120222023F2024F2025F2026F3%4%4%5%5%20152016201720182019202020212022Q32023甲级写字楼零售物业xiaoduan.zhang@cushwake.com写字楼零售物业存量（平方米）6,494,9445,660,0863,524,362空置率18.68%7.23%2.47%租金（元/平方米/月）149.71710.2842.49资本化率4.5%4.4%5.0%202416•–•–•–•–0408012020202021202220232024F2025F2026F2027F02040608020202021202220232024F2025F2026F202417•–•–•–•–3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%20152016201720182019202020212022Q32023万平方米0501001502002020202120222023F2024Fivy.jia@cushwake.com写字楼零售物业存量（平方米）3,116,0767,987,9235,790,805空置率22.36%6.5%5.3%租金（元/平方米/月）103.42617.7327.33资本化率5%-6%4%-5%5%-7%202418•–•–•–•–，01020304020202021202220232024F2025F2026F02040608020202021202220232024F2025F2026F202419•–•–•–•–030609012015020202021202220232024F2025F2026Fxiaoduan.zhang@cushwake.com写字楼零售物业物流高标库存量（平方米）3,007,2674,053,3994,583,832空置率35.9%13.8%21.9%租金（元/平方米/月）94.8463.925.8资本化率6.0%5.2%5.8%202420•–•–•–•–0102030402020202120222023F2024F2025F2026F040801202020202120222023F2024F2025F2026F202421•–•–••–03060901202020202120222023F2024Frosanna.tang@cushwake.com写字楼*零售物业存量(平方呎)68,312,500N/A35,250,900空置率18.0%8.2%7.5%租金(港币/平方呎/月)48.2616.014.8资本化率2.5%***2.8%3.2%202422•–••–•–05001,0001,5002,000201920202021202220231H2024F铜锣湾尖沙咀中环旺角0.12.91.81.2