罗兰贝格-DACH中处于十字路口的资本品公司（英）-2023.12-10页.pdf

Softlandingorsteepdownturn?ThesearechallengingtimesforcapitalgoodscompaniesintheDACHregion.Withorderbacklogsdecliningsignificantlyinrecentmonths,theyfaceavarietyofchallenges,rangingfromgeopoliticaltensionsandeconomicuncertaintiestoclimatechangeandindustrytransformations.Signsofdownturnvarysignificantlyacrossindustriesandregions,meaningcompaniesmustcollateathoroughunderstandingoftheirindividualbusinessunitsandthecontextualfactorsinfluencingeachone.Inresponsetothesechallenges,RolandBergerrecommendsaproactiveandscenario-basedstrategy.Thisinvolvesstartingwithimmediate"no-regret"initiativestoaddresspressingissues,followedbystructuraladjustmentsandlonger-termgrowthinitiativestosecurefuturesuccess.CapitalgoodscompaniesintheDACHregionareatacriticaljunctureamidgrowingconcernstriggeredbyanuncertaineconomicoutlook.Thisisdespiteaglimmerofhopeinthefirsthalfof2023,whenmachineexportsappearedpromising.However,thistrendwaslargelythankstosubstantialorderbacklogsbuiltupduringperiodsofhighdemand.Thesebacklogshavegraduallyreducedinrecentmonths,causingoptimismtowaneasnewordersfailtoadequatelyreplenishthem.Notably,Swissmem,theSwissassociationformechanicalandelectricalengineeringindustries,hashighlighteda9.9%declineinorderintakeforthefirstninemonthsin2023comparedtothepreviousyear.Duringthesameperiod,salesremainedatthesamelevelasthepreviousyear(-0.1 %).Similarly,VDMA,Germany'sEngineeringNOVEMBER2023CapitalgoodscompaniesinDACHatacrossroadsAUTHORSSVENSIEPENSeniorPartnerSTEFANKRIEGERPrincipalFederation,reportsasignificantdeclineinorders,witha13 %dropinSeptember2023contributingtoa14%decreaseforthefirstninemonthsoftheyear.ThesedevelopmentsunderscorethesubstantialchallengesfacedbythemanufacturingsectorintheDACHregion.Prominentindustryleadershavesoundedthealarmregardingtheuncertainoutlook.Whatstandsoutinthecurrentsituationistheunprecedentedcomplexityconfrontingmarketparticipants.Geopoliticaltensions,macroeconomicuncertainties,highinterestrates,climate-relatedchallenges,andindustry-specifictransformationssuchashydrogen,electricvehicles,AI,ande-commerceareallunfoldingsimultaneouslyandoftenoverlapping,potentiallymagnifyingtheirimpact.Webelievethesecompaniesareatacriticalstageintermsofproactivelyaddressingthesechallenges,adoptingaforward-lookingapproach,andexecutingdecisiveshort-termaction.Someleadingcompanieshavealreadyinitiatedworkforcereductionsinoverheadsandoperationsofbetween5 %and15 %,hopingtoshedballastaccumulatedoveryearsofgrowth,increasetheirstructuralflexibility,andprepareforanticipatedrevenuedeclines.WhilecompaniesintheDACHregionhavelonggrappledwithstructuraldeficits,competitorsinNorthAmericahavebeenabletoadapttocostchallengesmoreswiftlyduringadownturn.Theyhaven'tjustdonethisbyreducingindirectcostsbutalsobyshuttingdownplants,offshoringthevaluechain,andoutsourcingtosuppliers,amongothermethods.Meanwhile,Chinesecompetitorsarekeentocapitalizeonthecurrentsituationandfurtherestablishtheirpresenceinthegloballandscape.Thisstartedearlyinareaslikesolarpanelproduction,beforemovingo