Deutsche Bank-Asia Week Ahead What you need to know 22-26 Jan-106038662.pdf

2024-02-01 21:32
Deutsche Bank-Asia Week Ahead What you need to know 22-26 Jan-106038662.pdf

20January2024DeutscheBankResearchAsiaEconomicsAsiaWeekAheadDateWeekahead20Janu0ry4nDentDsytcnJ0nryh0rJn4B0Jayrnk4rJyrn0RnJryBAnir0EJanomWmdnxpW5d.0.ne48%QntyAn(cn4BnDvhr0-yvyBJnDBny9h0rJeWExportsrose5.8%inQ4(vs.-9.6%inQ3),leavingawidertradesurplusofUSD9.6bn(vs.USD6.4bninthesameperiod),implyingthattradecontributedmorestronglytogrowth.Thelattershouldcounterdomesticdemandweakness–investmentinparticular,whichfell10.9%inOct/Nov(vs.-10.5%inQ3).Meanwhile,retailsalesfell2.9%(vs.-3.5%inthesameperiod).Intermsofsequentialgrowth,overallproductiondatasuggestssteadygrowth(a4.3%3m/3msaarinNov)fromthepreviousquarter(4.3%inSeptember),ledbymanufacturing.WebelievethattheBankofKorea(BoK)hasturnedneutral,andwemaintainourexpectationforthebanktocommenceitsratecutsinJuly–althoughrisksaretiltedtothedownside,amidelevatedconcernsoverprojectfinancing(PF)loansand;sluggish;domesticdemand.TheBoKviewstherecoveryinprivateconsumptionas;weakerthananticipated;,anditexpectsinflationtoshowaslowingtrend(albeitatamoderatepace),withpayrollgrowthslowing,ledbyservices–althoughtherecoveryofthesemiindustry(exports)shouldsupportheadlineGDPgrowthimprovementin2024.InitsNovemberpolicy,theCentralBankofSriLanka(CBSL)reduceditspolicyrateby100bps(inlinewithourexpectations),statingthat;furthermonetarypolicyeasingwillbepausedinthenearterm;.Sincethecrisis,theCBSLhadraiseditspolicyrateby1,050bps,ofwhich650bpswerereversedin2023(wehadforecasteda700bpeasingfor2023).Inourview,Jayn632)neyyvenryt,J4BJnJ0n,Jnr4Jyen4BcnRrJayr.Therefore,theNovemberratecutsmaymarkanendtotheeasingcycle.nl0Ey-yrQgiventhattheCBSLusedtheword;paused;,wethinkJayn,yBJr4tn(4Bsnv4cna4-ynr00vnJ0n,JnJaynh0tD,cnr4Jyn(cn4B0Jayrngp(henDBnm.wmfQncontingentuponSriLanka'sinflationtrajectoryandoncethemonetarytransmissionofthecurrentratecutsiscompletebythen.HongKong'sCPIisforecasttoremainlargelyunchangedat2.5%inDecember.Exportsareexpectedtoincreaseto8.7%YoYfrom7.4%,whileimportsarelikelytodeclineto6.8%YoYfrom7.1%.Malaysia'sGDPsurprisedsharplytothedownsideinQ4,posting+3.4%YoYgrowthinQ4(vs.themarketexpectationof4.1%growth),movinglargelysidewaysfrom+3.3%inQ4.Onasequentialbasis,theeconomycontractedby1.7%QoQsainQ4,afterthreeconsecutivequartersofrapidexpansion,withtheQ3rateat+2.6%.TheQ4GDPresult(advanceestimate)leftMalaysia'sannualgrowthlowerat3.8%in2023(vs.8.7%in2022),draggeddownbyweakmanufacturing.OntheJulianaLeeChiefEconomist+65-6423-5203KaushikDasChiefEconomist+91-22-71804909YiXiong,Ph.D.ChiefEconomist+852-22036139DeyunOuResearchAssociateDeutscheBankAG/HongKongIMPORTANTRESEARCHDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSLOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)041/10/2023.UNTIL19thMARCH2021INCOMPLETEDISCLOSUREINFORMATIONMAYHAVEBEENDISPLAYED,PLEASESEEAPPENDIX1FORFURTHERDETAILS.Whatyouneedtoknow:22-26JanDistributedon:19/01/202418:37:07GMT7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa20January2024AsiaWeekAheadPage2DeutscheBankAG/HongKongdemandfront,wesuspectthatnettradeanddestockinglikelyweighedheavilyongrowth.Moreimportantly,theweaknessinQ4GDPleftannualgrowthbelowBankNegaraMalaysia&#039

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