UBS Economics-Global Economics Strategy _UBS World at a Glance_ Kapteyn-107239662.pdf

2024-04-07 12:50
UBS Economics-Global Economics  Strategy _UBS World at a Glance_ Kapteyn-107239662.pdf

ab27March2024GlobalResearchandEvidenceLabGlobalEconomics&StrategyUBSWorldataGlanceAmonthlysynthesisofallourviewsinasingledocumentWesummariseourviewsonthemaineconomiesandinvestmentstrategyonthefollowingpages.Theaimisnottobecomprehensive,butrathertoprovideasuccinctsummaryofthemainchangesinourviewsandrecommendationsoverthepastmonth.Thecontributinganalystsarelistedintherelevantsectionsofthereport—ifyouhaveanyquestionsonanyparticulararea,pleasereachouttothemdirectly.Nothingtofearbutthelackoffearitself?Subduedvolatility,spreads,skewandintra-marketstockcorrelations,allspeaktoverystronginvestorbeliefinthecontinuityofGoldilocks,whereimplicitlystrongearningsgrowthispropelledbyasurgeinproductivity.However,westruggletoseethatinthedata.Yes,globalgrowthhaspickedup,butfromverydepressedlevelstosomethingthatlookspedestrian.Tactically,weareatextremesthathistoricallyseesmallnegativeequityreturnsoverthenext1-3months.WeseeanincreasedlikelihoodofaslowdowninthelargestTechstocksdrivingthemarket,Whilewewouldbecautiousonequities,wedoseevalueinfixedincome(US2y,UK,Korea,Mexico,Brazil):thelefttail(weakergrowthandmorecuts)issignificantlyfatterthantherighttail.Weexpectonlymodestdownwardpressureonthedollar(inH2),butstrengthvsEMFX(riskpremiaareatypicallylow).Synchronizedcentralbankeasingcyclesmayleaveusinapro-carryenvironmentforabitlonger(longAUD,andCHFlikelybecomingthepreferredfunder),andweseecreditspreadsendingtheyearclosetocurrentlevels.ThisreporthasbeenpreparedbyUBSAGLondonBranch.ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDREQUIREDDISCLOSURES,includinginformationontheQuantitativeResearchReviewpublishedbyUBS,beginonpage25.EconomicsGlobalArendKapteynEconomistarend.kapteyn@ubs.com+44-20-75670531BhanuBawejaStrategistbhanu.baweja@ubs.com+44-20-75686833GlobalEconomics&Strategy27March2024ab2GlobalEconomics&StrategyUBSResearchUBSEconomicsForecastsvsConsensus24F25F24F25F24F25F24F25F24F25F24F25F24F25F24F25FUS^2.21.40.0-0.33.12.40.20.04.753.250.00-0.25----Japan0.81.20.10.12.32.00.00.20.251.000.150.75140.0135.00.02.0Canada0.21.3-0.6-0.42.52.10.00.04.002.500.00-0.501.331.300.00.0UK0.21.5-0.10.32.32.0-0.2-0.14.502.750.25-0.501.331.250.10.0Switzerland1.31.50.10.01.41.4-0.10.11.001.000.000.000.890.880.00.0Eurozone^^0.61.20.1-0.12.42.10.00.03.252.250.250.001.121.100.00.0Germany^^0.30.80.2-0.32.21.9-0.3-0.23.252.25------France^^0.81.20.1-0.12.51.5-0.1-0.53.252.25------Italy^^0.80.80.2-0.31.21.3-0.4-0.73.252.25------Spain^^1.51.9-0.10.03.02.60.00.43.252.25------Greece^^2.53.01.00.72.52.00.00.03.252.25------EMEA2.13.0-0.30.216.49.10.1-0.6--------Turkey3.03.20.2-0.256.027.10.3-2.545.0025.003.75-2.5039.0048.004.08.0SouthAfrica1.71.80.50.25.04.40.0-0.17.507.000.000.0019.5020.000.92.0Kazakhstan3.64.0-0.6-0.59.07.50.20.612.0010.25--500.0525.0--Czech1.23.0-0.20.32.02.0-0.4-0.23.503.50-0.130.5021.7420.42-1.0-2.1Hungary2.03.3-0.50.03.83.4-0.5-0.45.004.50-0.500.00347.8333.3-10.7-23.2Poland2.83.40.0-0.13.54.2-1.10.05.003.75-0.50-0.753.793.86-0.20.0Russia1.21.0-0.70.07.04.50.5-0.112.508.501.000.5095.0095.00-3.0-15.0UAE4.03.90

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