IMF-选定南欧国家的家庭储蓄——来自跨国微观数据的证据（英）-2023.7-50页.pdf

2023JULHouseholdSavingsinSelectedSouthernEuropeanCountriesEvidencefromCross-CountryMicro-LevelDataKamilDybczak,ShiqingHua,MariuszJarmuzek,RuifengZhang,andYipeiZhangWP/23/150IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.*Theauthorswouldliketothank,withoutimplicating,DavidAmaglobeli,HelgeBerger,LukasBoer,BoeleBonthuis,DennisBotman,ChristopherCarroll,CharaChristofi,StephanDanninger,RupaDuttagupta,CsabaFeher,BrianGraf,DavidKaplan,AndriKonstantinidi,JaewooLee,WojciechMaliszewski,NektariosMichail,LauraPapi,RossenRozenov,JoaoSantosSilva,WeiShi,JirkaSlacalek,FrederikToscani,LauraValderrama,HannahWinterberg,andparticipantsoftheIMFseminarsforusefulcomments,discussions,andsuggestions.SpecialthanksgototheteamcoordinatingtheHouseholdFinanceandConsumptionSurveyattheEuropeanCentralBank(ECB).ErikaEspinoza,MariaAmparoGamboa,DanielMurphyPineda,andPaulTershakovecprovidedexcellentresearchassistance.Anyerrorsremainourown.©2023InternationalMonetaryFundWP/23/150IMFWorkingPaperEuropeanDepartmentHouseholdSavingsinSelectedSouthernEuropeanCountries:EvidencefromCross-CountryMicro-LevelDataPreparedbyKamilDybczak,ShiqingHua,MariuszJarmuzek,RuifengZhang,andYipeiZhangAuthorizedfordistributionbyRupaDuttaguptaJuly2023IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.ABSTRACT:ThepaperlooksintothepuzzleoflowhouseholdsavingsinthreeSouthernEuropean(SE3)countries–Cyprus,Greece,andPortugal.Buildingonthehouseholdsavingdriversliterature,weemploycross-countrymicro-leveldataandinvestigatethekeysavingpatterns,examiningtheirheterogeneityacrosshouseholdsinSE3countriesrelativetotheEAaverage.Theresultsconfirmtheprominentroleofincome,alongwithinterestrate,inflation,fiscalbalance,anddebtinshapinghouseholdsavingsinSE3countries.Quantileregressionsemployedtoanalyzesavingbehavioracrossthedistributionofhouseholdssuggestthathouseholdswithlowersavingstendtoseetheirsavingsdip(ordissavingsrise)more-than-proportionatelywithshockstoincome,interestrate,inflation,andgovernmentbalance.Ourpolicysimulationsacrossthedistributionofhouseholdssuggestthattargetedratherthanuniversalpolicyinterventioncouldimprovehouseholdsavings,especiallyofthemostvulnerableones.JELClassificationNumbers:E21,H31,C21,C54Keywords:Householdsavings;distributionalanalysis;policysimulationsAuthor’sE-MailAddress:KDybczak@imf.org;SHua@imf.org;MJarmuzek@imf.org;RZhang@imf.org;zhang.yipei@berkeley.eduWORKINGPAPERSHouseholdSavingsinSelectedSouthernEuropeanCountriesEvidencefromCross-CountryMicro-LevelDataPreparedbyKamilDybczak,ShiqingHua,MariuszJarmuzek,RuifengZhang,andYipeiZhangIMFWORKINGPAPERSHouseholdSavingsinSouthernEuropeanCountriesINTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND2C